Will the big chill heat up this spring’s food prices?

Photo by Flickr user Ellie Van Houtte

Just in time for those healthy-breakfast resolutions, Mother Nature has conspired to drive up the already-rising price of orange juice even more.

The proverbial arctic blast is hovering over much of the Northern Hemisphere, worrying growers and traders alike.

Orange juice futures – already rising due to lower Florida production forecasts – are jumping this week, as this Bloomberg piece, Orange juice futures jump to two-year high, outlines.

Wheat, beef, pork, soybeans, corn and other commodities also are more volatile this week; see this previous post, Digging for Agriculture news,  for links and tips for localizing stories about agricultural products and other commodities.

As I noted recently, staples like coffee, cocoa and sugar already are at multi-decade peaks, and the ingredients for pizza pies are costlier lately, too. Consumers hearing these snippets no doubt are wondering about the long-range effect on their pocketbooks in 2010; it might be time to revisit the food-price story.

You can slice the story so many ways. Focus solely on workplace cafeterias, for example. Are fewer employer subsidies plus higher costs adding up to pricier lunches for workers? What about school cafeteria contractors, airline snack purveyors (what’s left of them!), hospital catering, banquet facilities and other niche food-service industries?
Is the per-plate cost of a wedding going up, and are more happy couples reverting to chicken and green beans instead of filet and asparagus?

How are higher food prices affecting soup kitchens, food banks and other charities – places that already are suffering as corporate largesse wanes.

Don’t hesitate to hit the consumer angle again. Food is pretty much the largest variable cost in any household and your audience won’t soon tire of market-basket prognostications. I’d be tempted to run a real-time ticker on the Web: Determine a set grocery list (maybe invite reader input?) specific to brand, type, size and store(s), and then update retail prices once a week through actual hands-on observation in the supermarket. If that’s not feasible, add a wholesale or commodities dashboard to your online business pages.

LOOKING AHEAD

Here’s a heads-up about economic reports and other news expected in the next few days:

Jan. 8: December unemployment rate. This is the big one from the Bureau of Labor Statistics;  most analysts don’t expect the national rate to dip below double-digits.
Jan. 13: Fed Beige Book
Jan. 14: Retail Sales
Jan. 15: Consumer Price Index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment