Election Outcome Shapes Direction for Economy Reporters

By Vandana Sinha
November 3, 2004 03:59 PM

Much of the story today was the end of the political horserace, one that experts now say seemed decided more by cultural choices than economic needs. But those economic stories will likely play out much more sharply in the days to come, predicts Andrew Cassel, an economy columnist at The Philadelphia Inquirer. He's written about the intersection of economics and politics in recent weeks, and talks in a Q&A with BusinessJournalism.org Associate Editor Vandana Sinha about the direction that economy reporters can go in the months ahead.

Q: The first major business headlines we saw this morning referred to higher oil prices and uncertain markets. Do you agree those reflected the major economic stories from the election results?

It's always questionable when somebody says stocks and the dollar are going down because of this. There are a lot of factors. Some traders are trading on the basis of where the election stands, but I don't think it's fair to assume that everybody is. And I don't think everybody who is speculating on the election agrees that it may be a good time to buy and a good time to sell. I think we have to be cautious. Stocks are up, and that's probably something. But I asked a stock friend of mine whether he thinks they're happy about Bush or happy that the election is over. He said it was the latter.

Q: What are the economy stories you think business reporters are missing so far today?

On a one-day basis, it's pretty hard to tell what you write immediately. … The Wall Street Journal had a story today that shouldn't be too surprising, a very appropriate story that says whoever the winner is will have to face a lot of big problems. He'll have to deal with the federal deficit for one thing. And the fact that we're borrowing on the average of a billion and a half dollars a day from foreign investors who finance American consumption and spending. That's a huge story, and it doesn't change from day to day.

Q: Given that the outcome has been formally declared, what are the economy stories for the next couple of days?

Now that [Bush is] on his second term, what is he going to decide to pursue and what will he not? Is he going to keep the same Treasury secretary? Is he going to keep the same economic advisers? He's talked about ambitious plans, like reforming the tax code and reforming Social Security and Medicare. These are huge undertakings. But you need to throw out everything he said during the campaign. He'll now decide what the country is ready for and what he can politically accomplish. …

We still don't know about the oil prices, whether the supply and demand will push prices up higher for a while or not. Whether the dollar sustains itself, and how much of that is attributed to how the Chinese and Japanese are behaving, because they're pumping so much money into Treasurys to keep their own currencies going. There's trade policy -- everyone expects China to rapidly increase its share of the world textile market. That's going to put pressure on a lot of places like Asia and in North Carolina. There's going to be the U.S. response to that. And what's going to be the bill in Iraq ? What are we going to spend? And can the federal budgets handle that?

Q: How do you think the day-after election-related business stories are, or should be, different from the day-after stories in 2000?

That time, we knew less about Bush's intentions and acclivities. He talked about a tax cut, but was probably more aggressive than people expected in carrying that out. He's got serious things to address, and some of them are of his own making. He's got to do that without blowing the deficit up to be debilitating. If he tries that, we'll see how Congress responds.

Also, if you want to dig that deep into political coverage, you have to ask: Was it the economy, stupid? How much the election rode on the economy is less than what the Democrats hoped. It's less than what organized labor hoped. Most of the post-election coverage said it had to do with moral values. That means people weren't that concerned about their jobs. There were other things they were worrying about. That's an interesting perspective on what we were saying and watching over months and months.

Q: Does that change in emphasis from the economy to cultural issues surprise you?

I actually wrote a column [about that] a while back. I didn't say I knew that would happen, but it doesn't shock me. It seems pretty clear to me that for several months, whatever you say about the economy, the signals were not clear. Some signals said that the economy is not doing well, some said it was.

Every gain in the economy was downplayed by the Democrats as not meaning very much. They'd say maybe there were jobs, but not enough jobs. Maybe the GDP was growing, but not very much. … Much of Kerry's pitch, and the pitch of his backers, was built around the "Economy stinks, and it's all George Bush's fault." Were they able to make that case? Maybe in some places. Maybe in Pennsylvania, they were. But obviously they weren't able to make it in a lot of other places.

Q: You write in your columns about having more perspective in covering this campaign, whether it's realizing that the next president's economic influence is limited or that this country's economic picture is more global today. Do you think economy reporters are doing a good job of bringing that larger perspective to their stories? 

Some are doing an excellent job. Guys like David Wessel of The Wall Street Journal. There are a lot of others. On the whole, there are very good economic reporters doing a good job. My sense is, it's better than it was. People are bringing more knowledge to their writing, and there are more people to triangulate views and get more perspective. The Internet is very helpful with that. Ten years ago, I saw economic writing, some in my own newspaper, that was pretty woeful.

Recent Cassel columns:

* "Shape of future is clearly global" (Nov. 3)

* "Any president's power is limited" (Oct. 31)

* "They can choose Tuesday's victor" (Oct. 29)

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