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By Chris Roush
October 11, 2006
We're heading into the fall shopping season, which means that the business section is going to have more stories about retail sales leading up to and after Christmas/Hanukah and the New Year.
Here's what bothers me when I read retail sales stories: They compare the results to the wrong time period, and too many of them quote economists instead of shoppers.
Don't get me wrong. I'm OK with the occasional economist whose quote helps the reader understand the significance of the increase or decrease in the numbers. But it's the consumers who are -- or aren't -- driving the numbers, and talking to them while they are in the malls or major department stores helps a reader understand what it's like to be out there.
As for the monthly retail sales statistics, there is the number put out by the federal government, and then there is the data that the major retailers such as Wal-Mart, Target and others release about their stores on a monthly basis as well. Both regularly merit coverage.
Too often, however, stories about those numbers look at the previous month instead of the same month a year ago. (For example, the AP story on August retail sales compared the growth to July's performance.) Think of it this way: You don't write earnings stories comparing the third quarter to the second quarter, do you?
Let me put it another way. Every retailer, and I mean every retailer, would love for reporters to write stories comparing November sales to October sales. Why? Because November is the beginning of the holiday sales season, and their sales are going to be much higher that month than in October, when all consumers buy are Halloween costumes and new winter coats.
A comparison of November 2006 retail sales to November 2005 retail sales is the better thing to report because it tells readers whether the retailers are performing better this year than last.
And if they're not performing better, then watch out for the follow-up story: What retailers are offering sales early in the holiday season.
Copyright © 2008 Donald W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism