Holiday Retail Coverage

By Andre Jackson
October 31, 2008

It’s that time of year again. The Christmas wreaths are bumping up against the Halloween costumes on clearance in the aisles of the nation’s retail stores. All too soon, parking lots and malls will be packed – maybe - with shoppers anxiously scanning both store shelves and hastily written gift lists.

In the newsroom, it’s about time for harried editors to pop up their heads from computer screens to ask aloud about the retail coverage plan for this year’s holiday shopping season. Journalism loves the Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa traditions almost as much as retailers do.

It’s easy to see why Scrooge-like editors’ eyes light up when holiday stories are described during news meetings. Department stores are nothing if not easy to illustrate – and even wary PR people will usually grant access this time of year. It’s an easy fix for slow news days: send a photographer out to do a quick drive-by at the local mall, get the graphics folks rolling on a locator map or two and you’re on your way to multiple centerpieces or colorful snippets for video.

Given that a sizable part of the non-retail business world goes on hiatus in the final weeks of the year, retail stories fill a real need for news. An added plus is that retail stories are of broad interest to readers and are pretty easily understood by even non-business types. For these stories, editors probably don’t even have to badger numbers-loving business reporters to back away from their spreadsheets and get out of the office to hunt down the elusive “Real People” (I call ‘em RPs, for short). These pieces beg for quotes and anecdotes from consumers to complete the picture reporters are trying to paint.

The retail season clearly has a prominent place in today’s journalism – and will for a long while yet, I predict. We should ask, though, how we can make this story more valuable for readers. How can journalists cover the popular basics and, more importantly, move beyond the hardy perennial topics that crop up each year like bad fruitcake sent to newsrooms by well-meaning PR firms?

Let’s start by stepping back a bit. Beyond the mall Santas and car trunks stuffed with presents, what’s the fuss all about, anyway?

For one thing, our economy has been fed for a generation by consumption-happy consumers. The trillion-dollar question is how that equation will change now that the U.S. economy has been dragged kicking and screaming onto a downward-bound roller coaster.

A quick mention of GDP, or gross domestic product, provides some context here. The oft-quoted GDP is described by the Hoover Institution as being “the sum of investment, personal consumption, government spending, and net exports.” GDP is a widely-watched measure of the size of the U.S. economy.

What’s GDP got to do with Santa and his elves bearing credit-card machines? Well, two-thirds of GDP is comprised of what Hoover calls “personal consumption.” Scale back consumer spending and an already-sickly economy takes another turn for the worse.

This will be the big, smart holiday business story this year – how will consumers behave with their pocketbooks? Will they cut back spending? If so, by how much?

The biggest annual revelation for non-business editors is that, even when consumers tighten purse strings, holiday spending still usually goes up. That’s right, annual spending increases are pretty much a given, although we’ll see what happens in the waning days of 2008.

Research firm Nielsen’s holiday forecast predicts that retail sales for the season will be 4.7 percent higher than in 2007. Nielsen may be the optimist here. The usually peppy National Retail Federation is less optimistic in its numbers. The NRF’s 2008 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey says the average U.S. consumer will spend $832.36 on holiday shopping, up “a paltry 1.9 percent” over last year. Paltry is their word, not mine. The NRF does expect overall holiday sales to rise by 2.2 percent this year.

Some of that expected increase in sales year-over-year can be attributed to inflation, rising energy bills and other input costs that are straining manufacturers and retailers.

There’s a good story to be told, though, in examining what’s driving the rest of the increase – assuming there will be one. Is it consumer psychology? Or the expectations of a society that embraces costly holiday gift-giving among family, friends and even in the workplace? Are parents afraid to disappoint children? Or are there other economic or emotional factors at work? It’s good to remember in this season that economics is, at heart, the art and science of studying and quantifying human behavior. Enterprising, creative reporters will find a lot of promising ideas on this subject.

Other good story ideas spread out from this economic base like branches on a Christmas tree. Among them:

How will retailers deal with stingier shoppers this year?
Will there be more, and earlier, sales and promotions? Will there be fewer seasonal employees wandering store aisles and helping harried shoppers? What special services may change, such as mall concierges that offer gift-wrapping, baby strollers and help with other shopping-related issues or tasks?

Who will win the marketing battle for consumers’ attention and money?
Will big-box stores carry the day? Will shoppers buy fewer, but pricier, items from more upscale retailers? Or will discounters win big and gain lasting relationships with new customers who’re suddenly a lot more cost-conscious? How will Main Street’s small shops compete against the mega-retailers?

How will shoppers pay for purchases they’re still bound and determined to make?
What will credit card use look like? Will usage increase for debit cards, or even old-fashioned cash?

From an interpersonal relationship standpoint, what changes, if any, will occur among community and social ties as people weigh whether co-workers, neighbors or their postal service carriers rate even token gifts this year?
Consumer behavior is a fascinating issue that can make for great stories that are easily accessible to all audiences.

With consumer sentiment faltering in light of bad economic news and even UPS suggesting Santa’s sleigh will be a bit lighter this year, holiday season 2008 offers fertile ground in which to prospect for sophisticated, informative stories that move beyond the obvious and interpret a troubled, complex world for our readers

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Copyright © 2008 Donald W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism