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If business magazine covers are any indication, the economic tide may be turning. There’s a hint of hope in the headlines on newsstands this month. BusinessWeek touts “The Risk Takers,” which details companies making gutsy moves despite the recession, Money magazine offers up “11 ways to rebuild wealth,” and Forbes has Beyonce on the cover with a feature on her thriving entertainment empire. Things seem to be looking up again and SmartMoney magazine is telling investors, “When to get back in the market” with a cover story on how to spot signs of a long-term rally.
Writers Reshma Kapadia and Elizabeth O’Brien have advice for the “millions of investors…waiting on the sidelines, wondering whether the recent rebound in stocks will last.” According to the article, U.S. investors took $900 billion off the table - at a rate of $200 billion a month during the meltdown - and are understandably reluctant to put it back in play. “For investors still smarting from last fall, waiting for multiple ‘go’ signs has an appealing logic. Before they feel confident about taking on the stock market’s risks, they want to feel like the other elements of their economic lives - their jobs, their home values, their ability to get a loan - are secure.” So the writers turned to economists and strategists to find out which of the many indicators can provide that confidence. The article looks at historical stock patterns, what’s happening on the borrowing and lending front, corporate hiring and spending trends, how crucial consumer spending is to the recovery, and what to expect next from the housing morass.
The writers also explain why some widely used statistics can be misleading, especially in a downturn this severe. It’s a reminder to investors and journalists that it’s easy to rely on old standby indicators, but if you don’t question them, you could get burned.
Copyright © 2009 Donald W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism