Prepping for a rebound

Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke made late headlines Tuesday by declaring the recession "very likely" over.

Bernanke was quick to add that recovery will be slow and that the U.S. economy – particularly the jobs market – will remain tepid for some time to come. It’s something of a chicken-or-egg scenario and many events, from weather catastrophes to geopolitical crises, can send the entire process back to ground zero.

No matter. It’s clear from reports on a number of economic fronts – stock trading, housing, retail sales – that hope is afoot. Even though naysayers can find a way to debunk every bright spot (“Retail sales are up only because of cash-for-clunkers”) your readers will be looking to you to decipher the signs.

Keep in mind that a recession generally turns around in roughly this order: markets rise, credit loosens up, then pent-up commercial investment and consumer spending gain speed. With more cash flowing, the housing market stabilizes or even grows, and when companies in all sectors think the resumed spending is here to stay they begin to hire again.

So, start looking for economic rebound stories in that order. For starters, get to know commercial bankers and institutional investors within your territory, and take their pulses on a regular basis.

And if you’re in the Dallas area on Monday, join us for a Reynolds Center free workshop, Finding Fresh Angles on the Economy, including a segment on covering signs of an economic recovery in your own backyard. If you can’t make the seminar, check back here soon for highlights from the discussion.

More car promos

Just a reminder that General Motors Corp.’s “May the best car win” money-back guarantee kicked in this week in an effort to maintain momentum fueled by last month’s cash-for-clunkers federal rebate program.

The Detroit automaker is offering consumers 60 days to decide whether or not they want to keep their new Chevrolet, Buick, GMC or Cadillac vehicles.

If the verdict is no, GM will refund the purchase price and sales tax; the offer runs through Nov. 30. Strings are attached: the guarantee doesn’t apply to leases or used vehicle purchases, the returned car must be damage-free and been driven fewer than 4,000 miles. For complete details, visit GM’s guarantee site. While interesting in itself, the splashy promotion also is a good excuse to check in with local dealers about how they’re faring without the traffic generated by the federal rebate deal. What are they doing to lure consumers to showrooms this fall?

Don’t limit your rounds to GM; other car companies face the same dilemma. For a good primer on how automotive purchase incentives work , as well as a handy sort-by-zip code deal finder, click on the New Car Incentive and Rebates button at the analytics firm Edmunds.com.

Understanding the structure and lingo of these programs will make your dialogue with dealers vastly more sophisticated and productive.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.