Time to put IPOs on your radar

Photo by Yodel Anecdotal/Yahoo! Inc.


You know the financial markets must be on the mend when analysts start mentioning IPOs with a straight face.

IPOs – initial public offerings – mean that entrepreneurs and underwriters are confident that shares in a newly public company will get an appropriately lucrative reception from investors. They were all the buzz five or 10 years ago, when companies from every sector were slapping dot.com onto their corporate signatures and tossing their shares into the ring.

Some, like 1-800-Flowers.com, wilted. Others, like Google – which opened at $85 and today trades around $490 – made hundreds of instant millionaires.

As liquidity dried up, so did the flood of offerings. But this year, a few tentative IPO attempts are happening here and there, like the tiny green shoots of perennial flowers that brave the chill of early spring.

Brush up your IPO-watching skills now and you’ll be ready when the next crop ripens.

Here’s a very basic primer from About.com’s stock market channel; it explains the hows and whys of initial public offerings.

To keep tabs on IPO activity, you want to keep an eye out for registration statements, the prospectus documents required by the Securities and Exchange Commission when new securities are issued. You may hear the term “red herring” bandied about; it refers to the earliest version of the prospectus, which doesn’t reflect the projected initial share price and some other key data. Like false clues in a murder mystery, it keeps investors on their toes.

Here’s the SEC rundown on registration statements. They’re public and readily available through the EDGAR system.

Unfortunately, SEC media relations says there’s not yet a way to set up an RSS feed or e-mail alert solely for IPO documents, but if you’re serious about covering new offerings, it only takes a few clicks a day to keep abreast of developments. At the SEC home page www.sec.gov click on “filings & forms,” then “search for company filings” and finally “most recent filings.” In the Form Type field of the little grey menu box, enter “S-1.” That will bring up a list of registration statements submitted over the past day or so.

Yahoo! has a rudimentary IPO look-ahead at its economic calendar. A better source is Hoover’s Inc., the firm that tracks private companies – it offers great stats and news on its IPO Central channel.

Consulting firm Renaissance Capital LLC welcomes media inquiries and offers a plethora of year-to-date statistics, news and other helpful information at its Web press room.

Even if your territory is not yet fertile ground for IPOs, you’ll want to evaluate those companies that are ripe for the plucking. (Bioscience and for-profit education are my bets.) Talk with regional economists, economic development groups, industry analysts and venture capital firms about which sectors may start producing when underwriting cash loosens up.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Getting creative with credit card stories

Oct. 1 marks the start of the fourth and final quarter of 2009, when consumer spending takes center stage. And much of that spending traditionally takes place on borrowed money.

That makes this a good time to develop some fresh angles on the credit card scene. Since most households use charge cards and about half carry an unpaid balance at the end of each month, it’s a topic with universal appeal and you can focus on:

Reform. It’s in the news again since the Federal Reserve threw another curve at credit card issuers Tuesday, proposing new consumer protection rules that will be appended to ongoing reform efforts. Effective in February, banks that extend unsecured credit won’t be able to jack up rates as freely as they do now, face curbs in marketing cards to people under age 2, must apply payments to highest-interest balances first and make other consumer-friendly changes.

Here’s Tuesday’s full statement by the Fed. You might get reaction from local card issuer, including credit unions, about how this will affect their lending practices.

Check out this previous Tip Sheet on credit card reform for more links and resources. And here’s a recent AP story on federal scrutiny of overdraft fees; overdraft accounts are generally a prettied-up version of revolving debt.

Dealing with debt. One enterprising consumer’s viral YouTube revolt won a reprieve on her interest rate from Bank of American and thousands of comments from viewers.

Not all debtors are quite so resourceful. As we head into the holiday season, consider a mini money-makeover series in which you enlist local budget counselors (through a credit union, home economics program or National Foundation for Credit Counseling-approved debt reduction program) to help treading-water consumers make some headway on their card balances. It’s a multimedia natural and an ongoing pre-holiday series will really draw the clicks to your Web site.

For more budget experts, contact the American Association of Consumer & Family Sciences and don’t overlook Debtors Anonymous sites. You’ll have to reconcile their no-name policies with your organization’s ethics rules, but they can be a great source of anecdotes and information about local trends in money woes.

Keep a balanced perspective. As one pundit said on CNBC Tuesday, a lot of the reform – and the federal bailout money issuers accepted -- is aimed at compensating for the actions of people who didn’t read their credit card agreements in the first place, or who overextended themselves. The lenders aren’t the only ones at fault as delinquencies rise, and it’s important to include that context.

Unintended consequences. This recent Washington Post piece points out that responsible credit card users are losing perks to offset the revenue banks won’t be reaping from people who overextend themselves and make late payments. This affects small business people who depend on rewards points to pay for plane fares and other big-ticket items; find out how they and other prudent spenders like having their perks yanked right before the high-spending holiday season.


Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Prying the most out of proxy statements

Executive compensation is frequent fodder for headlines – just Google AIG and Bank of America, for example.

But even when no alleged scandal is involved, your audience probably loves to read and click on features about what other people earn.

Using proxy statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a simple spreadsheet program, you can easily put together a local report about executive pay at local, publicly traded firms. Consider an interactive package with photos, bios, notable achievements and other information layered along with the pay data.

And pay practices are only a fraction of the eye-catching info these most human-interest-heavy of regulatory filings contain.

Proxies, also known as Form DEF 14-A, are sent to shareholders each year along with the annual financial report. They get their nickname because a voting card also is included; the shareholders – who are, after all, part-owners – are expected to cast their ballots by proxy if they can’t attend a firm’s annual meeting to vote on the appointment of board members and other governance issues.

Proxy statements are easy to read and follow a standard format.

Things you can learn from a proxy statement:

• Executive compensation. Government rules require a breakdown the most highly-paid executives’ compensation packages, including:

o Annual salary

o Cash bonuses

o Long-term incentive programs (can be cash or stock)

o Retirement provisions

o Stock options, short- and long-term

o Perks. These lists, often buried in the fine print of “other compensation,” make the most interesting reading. They range from executive protection and chauffeured cars to use of corporate plane, financial advice, residential allowances, low-interest loans, club memberships, season tickets to sporting events and other benefits. Many of these items are more reasonable than they sound and appropriate for top-level managers, but if the boss is still swilling champagne in private boxes while factory workers suffer layoffs, you’ll want to alert your audience.

• Directors and committees. The strongest companies have many independent outside directors and forbid inside directors from sitting on the compensation and audit committees.

• Self-dealing – also known as related party transactions – like when the company leases an airplane hangar from the treasurer’s sister-in-law. Legally, such insider dealing must be reported here.

• Performance vs. peers. The proxy statement must include a share performance chart comparing the company’s stock price against a reasonable list of peers in the same industry.

Proxies are readily available via the Securities and Exchange Commission’s EDGAR database of corporate filings. Consider signing up for the “latest filings” RSS feed if you cover a lot of public corporations.

Be creative when contemplating the data. My former employer, The Detroit News, for years ran a very labor-intensive but enlightening annual study called “Serving the Shareholders.” Each year, reporters analyzed data from more than 100 public companies in Michigan, to see who was putting stakeholders first and who was feathering the nests of top managers. It was real page-turner for readers – and local executives.

Other executive pay resources

Doing your own primary reporting is best, but if you need a hand with fast figures about executive pay, here are two handy resources:

• AFL-CIO Executive Paywatch database

• Forbes’ special report on chief executive pay from April 2009

Will recession’s end bring on merger mania?

One more sign the recession is ending: you’re hearing more and more buzz about mergers & acquisitions (M&A).

A number of reports suggest that companies have been stockpiling cash throughout the last two years’ credit crisis and low interest-rate environment that’s negated the impetus to invest. With an economic rebound in sight, they’ll be ready to bargain-hunt as the crunch eases and bank financing becomes more readily available.

As is usual of late, the IT industry is leading the way.

Just last week, Dell Inc. snapped up Perot Systems Corp. for $3.9 billion in what many think is a bid to even the playing field after Hewlett-Packard’s 2008 acquisition of EDS for nearly $14 billion.

Meanwhile, Adobe Systems has made a $1.8 billion bid for software maker Omniture.
Consumable-makers also are hot. Kraft Foods is generating headlines as it tries to woo the reluctant British sweets-maker Cadbury. Household goods giant Sara Lee is selling some personal care brands to Europe’s Unilever for nearly $2 billion.
Financial journalists are abuzz with M&A speculation. Here’s last Friday’s Reuters piece about investment banks competing for the new M&A business.

And Business Times says that US firms posted annualized cash flow of more than $1.5 trillion in each of the last three quarters, the most on record according to Commerce Department statistics dating back to 1947.

Not sure what’s all involved when one company devours another? Take some time to read Investopedia’s multi-chapter M&A primer.

Tapping in is difficult; obviously these deals are conducted on the QT due to Securities and Exchange Commission rules about disclosure and insider trading. One Perot Systems worker is in hot water as we speak for profiting from stock trades ahead of the Dell announcement last week.

An informational sit-down with a local or regional banker to discuss cash-rich firms and possible merger targets in your area is one approach; he or she likely will be circumspect to the point of paranoia but you might get a few leads. Industry-watchers at local business schools might be more candid.
Subscribe to feeds from TheDeal.com, particularly its M&A channel, to stay abreast of the landscape.

Note that the Reuters article mentions the M&A Research Centre at Cass Business School in London. It’s a newly formed program following the M&A business globally; its faculty includes bankers and others with real-life experience supervising corporate deals. Sign up for reports and follow the center on Facebook.

And don’t think mergers by far-flung companies are irrelevant to your readers. Investors – including individuals with 401(k)s and IRAs – want to know what they stand to gain or lose from corporate weddings.

And keep in mind that acquisitions typically lead to consolidation and economies of scale – not the cheeriest terms for workers, who rely on you to ferret out the implications.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Covering retail tactics along Main Street

Chain store closings, like the recent demise of Circuit City and Starbucks’ coffee-shop contraction, make national headlines.

But small shops and eateries, with fewer resources and lower profiles, are even more likely to suffer in a recession. Their plight, going into the ever-crucial fourth quarter retailing season, is well worth a second look.

If you cover an area with a venerable shopping district or small biz cluster, consider planning a standing feature to run from early October to year-end, with a weekly check-in, multimedia (interactive maps, interviews, behind-the-scenes video) and other elements that chronicle the season as it unfolds.

A growing angle: “Shop local” campaigns sponsored by business associations, chambers of commerce and other stakeholders. The marketing spins prompt area residents to head to neighborhood shops instead of chain stores to support the local economy.

One such effort getting a lot of attention this year is called the 3/50 Project.

It’s a simple premise: Participants ask residents to pick three locally owned businesses and spend $50 a month in them. Campaign organizers claim that if half of American shoppers did so, local merchants would benefit by more than $42 billion.

Kriss Rogers is president of the Uptown Merchants Association in Westerville, Ohio, which features a quaint maze of 19th Century storefronts north of Columbus. She started displaying 3/50 signage at her garden-themed gift shop, Outdoor Envy, last spring. A few months ago, she started signing up other local storekeepers and says the community is responding.

“I would say one out of three customers will read it and comment in a positive way,” said Rogers. “Lately they’ll come in and say ‘I thought I’d see if you have what I wanted before going to the mall.”

The 3/50 Project site lists retail participants by state; for other initiatives in your area dig around or contact the Chamber of Commerce.

Some noteworthy efforts nationwide:

• “Keep Louisville Weird” in Louisville, Ky. http://www.keeplouisvilleweird.com/
• Baltimore’s neighborhoods ran a “Miracle on Main Streets” campaign last year. http://www.miracleonmainstreets.com/
• Hancock County, Miss. plans again this year to run its “Holiday at Home” http://www.hancockchamber.org/HolidayCampaign/HolidayGoodCheer1.asp campaign urging residents to shop and dine at grass roots businesses this fall and Christmas season.

Other things to keep in mind: Neighborhood and downtown districts this year will try to gin up resident interest with festivals, special shopping events, sidewalk sales and other promotions – dig into the cost/benefit dilemma merchants face when being asked to sponsor these community relations events.

And be on the lookout for innovations. Rogers says her association has issued a gift card good at 16 local shops, to compete with the convenience of universal mall gift cards. Other cities issue scrip or vouchers good at local stores.

Round out your story with analyst commentary and statistics. For nationwide perspective, try the Main Street center of the National Trust for Historic Preservation in Washington, D.C. The center’s site also features its State of Main Street 2009 report.

Many of the campaigns claim that dollars spent locally benefit the community with a “multiplier effect,” meaning they are recycled through the local economy in the form of wages and spending by the area merchants, compared to cash that is whisked into corporate coffers.

Many of the citations regarding the multiplier effect are vague; I’d suggest checking for real-life data from a consulting firm such as Civic Economics, which does nationwide studies out of offices in Chicago and Austin, Texas.

For data, explore the U.S. Census Bureau’s retail portal. Among other things, it’s got a ZIP-code searchable database of business establishments by type and size; that will give you a look at how local shops are dwindling or multiplying. Census Bureau analyst can help you mine the data further.


Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

The benefit of biz blogs

Still have 30 or 40 minutes a day that you aren’t glued to a portable electronic device?

If so, I can fix that for you: Add a few more blogs to your daily digital diet.

Blogs by analysts, insiders and enthusiasts can add a dimension to your reporting and help spark story ideas you wouldn’t get from more formal communication.

Corporate-sponsored fora, like Direct2Dell, obviously are going to be the most bland and sanitized, but still may alert you to event and product news.

And - especially if you cover multiple beats - blogs by sophisticated industry observers actually can serve as signposts that help you sift the issues and remain focused on key topics.

If you’re trying to incorporate secondary beats into your workload – say you’re an airlines reporter with an interest in IT, for example, but no time to report on it – monitoring blogs can help you keep abreast of the industry buzz until time permits a more in-depth look.

Blog-watching is, of course, no substitute for primary information-gathering – you still must perform the customary due diligence when preparing your own reports. Some blog operators are just gadflys and self-promoters, but others truly are authorities in their fields and might even merit a call or a quote. Just proceed with caution and be aware of the bloggers’ biases.

Here are a few specific sites I recommend:

• Fiat Economics is a timely, brisk, somewhat technical blog by Michael McDonough, an analyst and contributor to TheStreet.com. It’s especially helpful for his look-ahead columns that often run on Friday.

• Jalopnik is the daily go-to site for journalists on the automotive beat, with its mix of product news and corporate gossip. And at General Motors Corp., the FastLane entries by industry guru Bob Lutz is always an amusing read.

• The Consumerist is a watchdog blog now owned by Consumer Reports – sort of “The Daily Show” of consumer advocacy, with an irreverent wit but very timely and incisive skewering of corporate news, mis-steps and customer-relations faux pas.

If you have access to a Wall Street Journal online subscription, several of its blogs are worth note:

• The Numbers Guy is often, but not always, business-centric, these fascinating entries pick apart the numbers behind the headlines. Especially helpful for those who are math-phobic.

• The Health Blog offers an at-a-glance daily digest of the topics du jour on one of the hottest business beats, and a font of interesting feature stories.

• Bankruptcy Beat from the editors of the Dow Jones Bankruptcy Review; not only is it a great source of news, it’ll give you ideas on spinning off bankruptcy stories on your own turf.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

The shrinking dollar

In the Alice-through-the-rabbit-hole world of finance and investing, things aren’t always what they seem.

The U.S. dollar touched a one-year low compared to the euro Tuesday – making the European coin worth more than $1.48.

For many here in the states, that’s cause for celebration.

It’s also counter-intuitive. Wouldn’t we want our economy’s currency to always outvalue that of other nations?

Not if we’re sending goods to those other countries, or trying to lure their tourists and business investment here.

Here’s a primer from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Even if you don’t cover Disneyworld or Las Vegas, or live in a state that’s trying to woo a foreign factory, you definitely can find some local industry – agriculture, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, tourism, IT – that exports products or commodities and otherwise ebbs and flows with the fate of the greenback.

On the flip side, consumers planning to travel overseas – or send their children as foreign exchange students – really suffer when the dollar is weak. With the school year just underway, the plight of study-abroad programs would make a great personal finance piece.

Overseas interest in commercial and residential property is a story that’s ripe for the plucking in just about any market.

In 2008, an extremely weak dollar fostered news reports that overseas car makers like Volkswagen AG and BMW to build or expand U.S. factories, and to source more car parts here, to take advantage of the amped-up purchasing power.

Houses, cottages and vacation condos are more attractive to foreign buyers when the dollar is weak – a 2008 report by the National Association of Realtors claimed that 26 percent of its members had served an international client in the previous year.

Search for a Realtor with the NAR’s Certified International Property Specialist in your state or zip code and ask some of them about overseas interest in your region.

When it comes to the markets, our dollar tends to zig when other investments zag, and vice versa. That’s because traders use the U.S. greenback as a safe haven, much as we store cash in a piggy bank. When other investments –stocks, commodities, overseas currencies – start to appear worth the risk, the piggy bank is lightened in favor of those other buys.
Here’s a Radio Free Europe article that puts demand for the dollar in perspective.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Stock market savvy

Melissa Preddy originally wrote this blog in September as she watched the Dow climb closer to 10,000. Today, it slipped above that mark in intraday trading.


Arcane symbols and hieroglyphics. Wild gesticulation. Chest-thumping, red-faced gurus spouting gibberish-laden predictions based on mysterious code spelled out in tiny black letters.

Some primitive cult ritual? Nope, just another day among the Wall Street pundits.

Sometimes, watching and reading the bombastic babbling that passes for stock market coverage, I feel irritated to think of the dissonance this stirs up in average saving-for-retirement investors.

They’re told to buy low and hold on for the long run. But the analysts gyrate on a minute-by-minute basis, tickers flickering like mad on TV and computer screens, riling up the audience over every fractional gain or loss.

You’ll do your readers a service if you try to stifle the hype. But some Wall Street symbols can’t be ignored, and Dow 10,000 looms.

Most analysts will say it’s just a psychological milestone with no real substantive import, but emotions do have a significant effect on markets, and big round numbers like this tend to make your readers look for an explanation. Especially since it gets the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) back into five-figure territory, if still a ways off the October 9, 2007 peak of 14,164.53.

Prepare now so you can expedite an online Web update when the magic threshold is crossed.

• Line up experts and analysts. Regional economists, certified financial planners (do a zip-code lookup ) and business professors at local colleges can put the move in historical perspective.

• If any of the 30 DJIA components are major employers or otherwise have presence in your area, you might want to line up an interview with their investor relations office and highlight their performance as a news peg for your story. This brochure outlines Dow components since the index was established in 1896.

• Get with graphics and decide what charts you’ll need to order; aside from the standing DJIA historical fever chart, you might want to show intra-day volatility or a list of how regional companies were buoyed.

If you’re going to write about the markets, you should be able to decipher the information on (what used to be) a typical stocks page, at minimum. Most of the basic metrics and measurements are self-explanatory, including the overall trading volume, the ratio of advancers to decliners and percentage changes. The rolling 52-week highs and lows are watched for individual stocks as well as indices. This Dow channel at MarketWatch.com is a very handy live recap of Dow activity; the site offers similar data for other major indices like the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ market.

It gets a lot more arcane; this InvestorWords glossary is a useful site to bookmark if you’re educating yourself about the financial realm.

The point of understanding these measurements is not so much to report them in the abstract – the wire stories can do that – but to mine them for information pertinent to companies and industries your readers care about. If you’re in San Jose or Austin, for example, and the tech sector leads decliners, you’ve got something to write about. If your big local employer gets added to – or kicked off – the Dow components list, readers who rely on the firm for their paychecks and pensions are going to click like mad on your Web update.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Housing heads up

This week and next are heavy with residential housing reports, so if you haven’t done a home-price story lately, it’s a good time fire one up.

The key to avoid confounding yourself and readers is to use the data consistently, because a number of home price indices are released in rapid succession toward the end of each month.

On Tuesday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency monthly house price index is expected; this one is based on transactions underwritten by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and will reflect July prices. The FHFA site also offers downloadable data and a home-value calculator you may wish to offer as a link to readers.

And on Friday the U.S. Census Bureau’s new home sales report, which also includes price information, will be released to reflect August Data. That follows the existing home sales report by the National Association of Realtors, which comes out Thursday.

The Standard & Poor’s/ Case-Schiller Home Price Index, a somewhat broader measure, will be issued on Sept. 29.

Confused? You’re not alone. A caveat to working with this type of data is to look at the overall trends, not obsess over the absolute percentage gains and losses. Use the numbers to portray a general sense of where you local market is heading, but dig for anecdotes, specific dollar figures from actual home buyers, and other up-to-the-minute detail for your narrative.

This Bankrate.com article, meanwhile, is a helpful primer on the methodology behind the various home price indices along with caveats and tips.

And this Marketwatch.com piece from last week is a succinct roundup of the challenges some analysts think will depress home prices for years to come. Note the color-coded map depicting how long each state is expected to languish before a rebound; according to it, my territory won’t recover until 2023.

Break down a similar graphic for the cities, counties and neighborhoods in your region and readers will stampede to read it, clip it and clamp it to their refrigerators. In fact, you’ll just about be guaranteed “most e-mailed” status in the newsroom the day it runs.

If Moody’s Economy.com can’t provide to you the same level of detail it gave Marketwatch, perhaps your local Federal Reserve bank, a real estate economist at a local bank or an expert at the regional multi-listing service would give it a shot.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Combing the classifieds for story ideas

This weekend, don’t just fling those classified advertising columns straight to the recycle bin.

Let them earn their keep by helping you generate fresh story ideas on just about any business beat. Half an hour perusing a single section should generate enough new fodder to keep you busy for two weeks. Monitored over time, with a red pen and a few stick-on notes, the waxing and waning of various categories will alert you to trends.

Think about it. The commerce that takes place through the classified section – and these days, online advertising like Craigslist – typically is off the radar screen if you’re accustomed to relying on publicists, SEC filings and corporate press releases.

Dog groomers, boat salesmen, escort services and people selling small storefront businesses seldom hire PR agents. But these transactions are the lifeblood of any community. When they thrive or slump, it’s news about the micro economy we all share – and often a launching pad for great storytelling.

Read the fine print – any interesting local mansions languishing on the market? Oddball businesses on the block? A plethora or dearth of toys like RVs, snowmobiles and watercraft? Measure the help-wanted signposts: which jobs seem to go begging? Are any new restaurants or retailers hiring? This often will be your first clue that they’re in the market. And of course, this time of year, you can get a jump on the seasonal job trends by monitoring merchant ads – or lack thereof.

Needless to say, the classifieds also are excellent sources of “real people” for business and personal finance stories. Where else can you find hiring managers, SUV-sellers, pet breeders and Realtors – complete with contact info – with a few turns of the page?

The same goes for the shoppers, coupon packs and other direct-advertising pieces that show up on your doorstep or through the mail slot. I’ve spotted new business trends in those coupons, from the proliferation of handyman services to the astonishing advent of pet-waste pickup franchises, just by reading my junk mail.

Promotions offered through local advertising also provide excellent clues to the local business climate. Two-for-one restaurant vouchers abound these days, as do discounts for hair styling, lawn treatments and kitchen remodeling. I’ve even noticed more dentists, chiropractors and optometrists – professionals whose work often isn’t covered by insurance – luring new patients through the coupon packs. There’s a health-care trend story for you.

Last, but not least, keep an eye out on community bulletin boards. Who’s advertising junkets to seniors at the fellowship center? Might make for a good charter tourism piece. Are babysitters and leaf-rakers vying for attention on the hardware store board?

Don’t laugh. Years ago, on impulse, I grabbed an eye-catching flier on the way out of the supermarket: A local private investigator was offering to send attractive decoys and record whether errant spouses took the bait. That little afterthought turned into a front-page feature that flashed across the wires for days, got the detective gigs on tabloid TV and may just have cemented my first job offer. You never know.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Space for rent and plenty of it

Not since “Psycho” have so many ‘vacancy’ signs been so scary.

That’s because nothing quite says “stagnant economy” like darkened storefronts, empty offices and idle industrial sites. Driving around my neck of the woods, it’s often a toss-up as to whether the viable business marquees outnumber the “For Sale or Lease” signs on commercial real estate.

Even as the residential housing market shows some signs of stabilization, observers say the commercial crisis has yet to reach full bloom – making it fertile ground for your reporting this fall.

Richard Parkus, an oft-cited Deutsche Bank analyst, told Congress in July that he predicts up to $90 billion in commercial mortgage losses, with default rates the highest on recent loans. His speech (pdf document) is a good primer if you’re new to non-residential real-estate coverage.

Just this week, the Treasury Department modified refinancing rules for some types of commercial mortgages; the easing of tax penalties is an attempt to stave off defaults that might be prevented by refis.

The retail numbers alone are staggering. Wednesday, Blockbuster Inc. said it expects to close up to 650 stores by year-end, with as many as 285 on the chopping block in 2010. Those cast-off outlets will join legions of other recently failed merchants, from Circuit City to Bombay Co. to Linens ‘N Things.

In all, some 10,000 retail outlets may be shuttered this year, according to a consulting firm report cited in Progressive Grocer magazine, a Nielsen Business Media publication. This is well worth an e-mail sign-up, by the way, for anyone on the retail, economy, real estate and development beats.

Note that the store closings affect landlords at properties ranging from tiny neighborhood strips to large big-box oriented power centers to traditional enclosed malls; each format would make a compelling angle for a vacancy package. Be sure to talk with nearby firms and merchants about what those gap-toothed shopping centers do to undercut traffic at their still-viable companies.

I’ve noticed a number of attempts to camouflage vacant stores with murals, showcases, community information and more – that alone would make for a picturesque and readable business feature.

And the numbers above don’t even count obsolete offices and manufacturing sites, from the city-sized automotive plants to defunct light industrial compounds and obsolete mom-and-pop shops like the cardboard box factory that used to clatter and whir a few blocks away from my office.

The Federal Reserve Beige Book released Sept. 9 includes anecdotal information confirming that commercial real estate activity is weak, with some landlords making rent concessions and postponing property improvements to offset high vacancy rates. Read beyond the summary for specifics on your region and give the analysts a ring; they might be able to provide more quantitative data.

Vacancy statistics are hard to come by, because they’re gathered mostly in proprietary reports by consulting firms that turn a dime selling the info within the industry. Depending on your approach, some, like giants Reis Inc. and CB Richard Ellis, may be willing to share selections from their reports or at least point you in the right direction.

Either way, their Web sites are great sources of industry background. Local developers and brokers – get their names right off the “For Lease” signage – may also maintain their own indices and databanks. And don’t overlook local bankers for insight into the real-estate realm.

Other sites you’ll want to hit:

The Real Estate Roundtable, a lobbying firm with vast resources and factoids on its site.
The National Retail Federation and the International Council of Shopping Centers, each of which monitors retail development and vacancies
Retail Traffic Magazine

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Prepping for a rebound

Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke made late headlines Tuesday by declaring the recession "very likely" over.

Bernanke was quick to add that recovery will be slow and that the U.S. economy – particularly the jobs market – will remain tepid for some time to come. It’s something of a chicken-or-egg scenario and many events, from weather catastrophes to geopolitical crises, can send the entire process back to ground zero.

No matter. It’s clear from reports on a number of economic fronts – stock trading, housing, retail sales – that hope is afoot. Even though naysayers can find a way to debunk every bright spot (“Retail sales are up only because of cash-for-clunkers”) your readers will be looking to you to decipher the signs.

Keep in mind that a recession generally turns around in roughly this order: markets rise, credit loosens up, then pent-up commercial investment and consumer spending gain speed. With more cash flowing, the housing market stabilizes or even grows, and when companies in all sectors think the resumed spending is here to stay they begin to hire again.

So, start looking for economic rebound stories in that order. For starters, get to know commercial bankers and institutional investors within your territory, and take their pulses on a regular basis.

And if you’re in the Dallas area on Monday, join us for a Reynolds Center free workshop, Finding Fresh Angles on the Economy, including a segment on covering signs of an economic recovery in your own backyard. If you can’t make the seminar, check back here soon for highlights from the discussion.

More car promos

Just a reminder that General Motors Corp.’s “May the best car win” money-back guarantee kicked in this week in an effort to maintain momentum fueled by last month’s cash-for-clunkers federal rebate program.

The Detroit automaker is offering consumers 60 days to decide whether or not they want to keep their new Chevrolet, Buick, GMC or Cadillac vehicles.

If the verdict is no, GM will refund the purchase price and sales tax; the offer runs through Nov. 30. Strings are attached: the guarantee doesn’t apply to leases or used vehicle purchases, the returned car must be damage-free and been driven fewer than 4,000 miles. For complete details, visit GM’s guarantee site. While interesting in itself, the splashy promotion also is a good excuse to check in with local dealers about how they’re faring without the traffic generated by the federal rebate deal. What are they doing to lure consumers to showrooms this fall?

Don’t limit your rounds to GM; other car companies face the same dilemma. For a good primer on how automotive purchase incentives work , as well as a handy sort-by-zip code deal finder, click on the New Car Incentive and Rebates button at the analytics firm Edmunds.com.

Understanding the structure and lingo of these programs will make your dialogue with dealers vastly more sophisticated and productive.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Journeying to China from your backyard

Last week’s Obama administration move to levy tariffs on imported Chinese tires boosted auto-tire stocks Monday and may touch off an escalation of duties on other goods exchanged between the two countries, as this New York Times article explains. Chicken meat appears foremost in the crosshairs of Chinese regulators, with who-knows-what to follow.

The macro view in this piece is fascinating and well worth a read. It’s also possible to spend a lifetime becoming an expert on U.S.-China trade, which may be hard for you to squeeze in and still keep your day job.

Still, there are ways to combine the two, and chances are a little due diligence will turn up China stories in your backyard. The tendency is to focus on competition, which has resulted in legions of manufacturing jobs moving from the United States to Asian nations.

But just to be contrarian, why not look for examples of cooperation?

Recently, for example, I spoke with the head of a well-known regional furniture retailer. He mentioned casually that his firm maintains a full-time buying office in Asia. That’s really noteworthy for a privately owned chain that’s only one generation removed from the owner manning the till. Not only is it an interesting financial story, but a natural for a multimedia feature on the work-life issues for transplanted Midwestern furniture buyers.

Not sure where to start? The China Business Review offers a free online subscription to journalists. A publication of the nonprofit U.S.-China Business Council, it’s packed with news, trend stories, commentary, directories and more. Just clicking on the council's board of directors page alone is likely to lead you to business executives with China ties in your region -- or someone who can point you there.

The U.S. Department of Commerce International Trade Administration's site is a massive portal to all sorts of data and publications. Statistics about international trading partners, while not the freshest, are broken down by industry, sector, metropolitan area and even include some small-business data.

Its Export.gov China page is also worth perusing for background data and to jump-start story ideas. Your local university no doubt houses international trade, Asian studies and other expertise. And many state governors have taken or contemplated overseas trade missions; contact their staffs for information about companies in your state that have Asian partnerships.

Trade with and investment in and by Asia is huge news these days. It’s a mind-bogglingly complex topic, but as Chinese philosopher Lao-tzu is quoted as saying, “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” Challenge yourself to find and execute a local angle on China, and soon.

Come back to "Your Daily Tipsheet" each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Anniversary tales -- once more with feeling

This week marks one year since the first domino fell in what would become a series of financial collapses that have left few of us untouched – either as consumers, taxpayers, citizens or journalists.

Events surrounding Lehman Bros.' Sept. 15, 2008, bankruptcy have been and will be dissected ad infinitum. Here’s The Wall Street Journal’s succinct recap of where we’ve come since then, which is one way to cover an anniversary.

Then there’s last weekend’s impressive package by The Guardian. It explains the collapse from a U.K. point of view, including video, audio, an interactive map showing the global ripple effects, editorials, narrative accounts of the days leading up to the failure and more.


In an irreverent vein, Bad Idea notes that a feature film, book, radio play and other productions to mark the occasion are under way.

And, it reports, Lehman Bros. itself has set up an eBay store to offload items with its logo, ranging from teddy bears to totes, umbrellas to – yes – a silver-plated baby rattle. I thought that was a joke but indeed there is an eBay seller named “thelehman store” – and ironically, it has a 99.5 percent positive rating from buyers.

All of the above are examples of imaginative, clever reporting that really adds texture and nitty-gritty detail to what could otherwise be a dull and dreary retelling.

If you decide to localize the global financial failure with a look-back, keep these points in mind. Should you be among the many communities that have experienced a failed or troubled bank, shoot for a meaty narrative or use alternative storytelling such as a chronology or graphic timeline.

And for the basics, here are previous tipsheets with hints on checking up on banks and covering bank failures.

Another option is to look for three to five local people whose financial lives have changed dramatically in the year since the Lehman collapse. Do vignettes on their stories with a short intro recapping the bigger picture and tying them to it.

The anniversary of Lehman points to the need to keep a tickler file of big local events -- a major plant closing, a wave of layoffs, the opening of a new mall or megaplex, the appointment of a new CEO -- and check back at appropriate intervals. How did things work out once the hype died down?

The key word in anniversary stories is that they actually tell a story. Well-done anniversary stories keep us from becoming entrenched in drive-by mode – covering crises and then moving on. But audiences connect with recap and “where are they now” features. They create a sense of dialogue and consistency that is well worth cultivating.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Hark the holiday shoppers ring

The calendar still says "summer," but on many store shelves, it’s already Halloween, with Santa in hot pursuit.

Nothing new in that – except that it’s your job to make it fresh and interesting.
This year, that won’t be difficult, with analysts anxiously seeking signs of recovery in consumer spending. Speaking of which, tomorrow be on the lookout for both the ICSC/Goldman Sachs weekly chain-store report and the Census Bureau’s monthly take on retail sales.

Keep those sites handy for context as you craft seasonal stories.

With retail results lackluster so far this year, merchants need to squeeze all they can out of these last few months. You’ll want to focus on the type and timing of promotional efforts, inventory strategies and other tactics that shoppers will notice.

Planning is key to effective business features. Don’t wait until the week before Thanksgiving to develop your sources; anyone connected to the shopping scene is too busy then. Now is the time to get to know managers, corporate PR staff, clerks and analysts.

Let your creativity flow. Once I worked for a business editor who cleverly convened a retail roundtable in early fall. We hosted six or eight area mall managers for coffee, pastries and a free-flowing discussion of challenges, forecasts and trends -- everything from seasonal hiring to the year’s hot toys and fashion items. It produced excellent story ideas we wouldn’t otherwise have known about. It also gave us several hours to establish credibility with people who then were more willing to answer our calls.

We wrote a Q&A out of the meeting itself, with photos and mini-bios of the executives and the malls they managed. Imagine the interactive map you could do, with pull quotes, pop-up mall stats and more.

A hot topic for such a group this year: empty storefronts. Strip-shopping-center vacancies hit a 17-year-high, and malls were looking pretty grim too, according to this July report from Reuters. Ask operators and developers what they’re doing to make those empty spaces more festive and more profitable; in past years, I’ve seen everything from temporary seasonal stores (the Halloween ones already are moving in) to gift-wrap and hospitality centers to nonprofit fund-raisers and craft sellers.

Speaking of festive, Google around for the firms that do seasonal decorating at your local shopping malls; they’re also great sources of trend anecdotes.

Holiday hiring will be top of readers’ minds; this year, the supply of elves will likely exceed demand.

For all these stories, make your source list and check it twice -- and avoid last-minute shopping for experts.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Tracking successes, trends at trade schools

Standing out amid the few grey columns of help-wanted blurbs in my Sunday paper is a quarter-page multi-colored patchwork of come-ons for trade and technical schools.

“Out of work or laid off? Get certified in 6-12 months” shouts New Horizons, which promises careers in project management and security. “We specialize in displaced workers.”

U.S. Truck Driver Training School Inc. promises guaranteed employment, great pay, job security and benefits. Superior Medical Education says you can “Be an Emergency Medical Technician in only 1 Semester! Payment plans available.” Meanwhile Kaplan Career Institute offers “freedom and independence” as an electrical technician, or “ a career helping people” as a medical assistant.

With so many displaced mid-career workers seeking a new niche, as well as the usual crop of post-high-school students looking for practical career training in lieu of a liberal arts degree, the for-profit education business is booming.

For workers, there’s security in learning a trade or personal service skill like massage therapy, which can’t be outsourced or computerized. For investors, some analysts have suggested that shares of publicly traded education firms are “recession proof” and reports suggest they’ve been attracting more attention in the last year or so from large private-equity firms fleeing traditional industries.

National enrollment figures are difficult to nail down because there’s an overlap between the wholly private programs and those run by public institutions such as community colleges.

The statistics problem is compounded by a rather mazelike oversight system including state boards, national accrediting bodies and other agencies. The best source I could find is this state-by-state, 82-page directory of higher ed officials at the Council of Recognized National Accrediting Agencies site.

While you’ll have to nail down some enrollment figures now that the semester is under way, the numbers aren’t as compelling as the stories behind the students. This topic screams out for a multi-media package with video of hands-on training, interviews with displaced workers describing the pros and cons of a career change, a regional interactive map showing school locations, a consumer caveats fact box, links to schools and other elements.

Check with your state’s attorney general about scams associated with trade schools and/or financial “aid” programs.

The U.S. Department of Education has a channel devoted to career and technical schools including consumer and some regulatory information.

You can search for trade schools in your zip code radius via the DOE’s Career Navigator tool. (Hint: click on “2-year or less” in the ‘institution type’ field to focus the search on commercial trade schools.)

Other resources include:

The Career College Association -- a trade group for vocational schools and for-profit operators like the University of Phoenix
The Association for Career and Technical Education, while primarily addressing high-school programs, does offer substantive state-by-state information about dual-enrollment programs, ethics and the like.
This education stocks index by TickerSpy will give you a lead on major publicly traded players in the for-profit school market; click on their ticker symbols for corporate info.
The Council on Higher Education Accreditation has several articles about “degree mills” and links to similar material at the state level.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Odds favor any casino story

Hope, they say, springs eternal – but apparently not at the nation’s blackjack tables and slot-machines.

U.S. casinos, which proliferated and boomed throughout the past 15 or so years, are stagnating amid the recession. Resorts are giving away rooms to lure reluctant rollers, glitzy real-estate developments are stalled and casinos have pared their workforces.

Applied Analysis, a Las Vegas consulting firm, publishes a monthly gaming stocks index that tracks performance of national casino operators and a couple of slot-machine makers.

According to the firm's August report, slumping casino stocks rebounded, outpacing the S&P 500 gains. But, they noted, the improved earnings behind the gaming stock rally were due to cost-control measures, not an uptick in gambling revenue. The American Gaming Association (AGA) reports that commercial casino revenue has dipped every month since February 2008.

You can subscribe to that Applied Analysis monthly report free of charge, by the way, and it’s probably a good move if you’re in gambling territory. Which most of us are.

The AGA reports that 20 states allow commercial casinos; many more are home to Native American casinos on tribal land. This trade association’s Facts at Your Fingertips booklet is a succinct primer to gambling in the United States, and also includes pages of contact info for other organizations, industry publications and the like.

Be sure to read this AGA fact sheet on how casino revenue is calculated; it’s a bit different than at traditional companies because of the way players “recycle” their incremental winnings in a single session. That’s called the ‘handle’ in gambling parlance.

Your state gaming control board is a go-to source for revenue reports, licensure and disciplinary information. Casino workers and vendors all must be licensed and much of the data is public record; as always; suppliers can lead to inside tips and interesting feature stories. The North American Gaming Regulators Association has a fairly skimpy Web site but its board members may be able to direct you to knowledgeable sources.

For more on tribal casinos, which are not state-regulated, check with the National Indian Gaming Association

This site for bettors, CasinoCity, has a very active newsfeed, yet I wouldn’t vouch for the accuracy of its state-by-state casino counts and the fact that it offers a directory of online gambling sites makes me nervous. It is a great source of background and story ideas, though.

Good luck!

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Score big with sports business stories

Even though I can’t tell the difference between a running back and a shortstop – nor do I wish to – I’m not immune to the allure of sports business stories.

They’re picturesque, very accessible to the audience, often reveal interesting behind-the-scenes detail and generally kind of sexy relative to run-of-the-mill financial fodder.

Besides, with standalone business sections becoming as scarce as Detroit Lions touchdowns, crafting a sports business package worthy of a sports cover or 1A placement will bolster the look of your clips file.

If your news organization lacks a sports business beat, this is the week to pitch one. The NFL season opener is Thursday, college football is just under way, baseball is heading into its stretch run before the playoffs, motorsports series are winding down – the list goes on. Hockey season starts October 1 and we haven’t even touched on preps, basketball, amateur leagues, wrestling federations and more.

Angles abound. You can explore the value of local franchises – often difficult with privately owned teams, but Forbes does a great job of covering the major leagues; here’s their 2009 story about the most valuable leagues in sports, to give you an idea of methodology. Poke around for their franchise rankings of specific sports, too.

Sports Business Journal and its sister publication, Sports Business Daily, are comprehensive, but expensive.

They do offer brief free trials, which would give you an idea of how business news is covered in various sports-related categories, from sponsorships to marketing. In a recession, particularly, companies are restricting monies spent underwriting expensive sports. Are they turning instead to more grass-roots involvement?

Advertising Age, the bible of the advertising industry – much of which is tied to live and broadcast sporting events – is available in libraries. It also offers free online content and e-mail newsletters.

For perspective, seek out consultants and academics. New York University offers a master’s degree in sports business; the North American Society for Sport Management lists many more. Their faculty may be great sources of local and regional story ideas.

Fantasy football, licensed merchandise, naming rights to ball fields – it all has a financial facet.

On a more nitty-gritty level, seek out suppliers – concessionaires, uniform makers, T-shirt imprinters, the firms that design and print tickets and programs, the collectibles peddlers, the high-end chefs in the VIP boxes. Somebody has to wash those uniforms, pick up discarded beer cups, stitch the baseballs, design the chassis and paint the goalposts.

Don’t overlook online. The behemoth home shopping networks regularly have pro sports hours featuring high-end merchandise and of course many people turn a dime selling memorabilia on eBay and its imitators.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Explaining 'Gold $1,000' to your readers

Rev up the gold-party circuit again.

Just when all of the remaining ‘80s-style snake chains from QVC were safely tucked away, desire for the precious metal has spiked again, pushing its price to nearly the $1,000-an-ounce mark Thursday.

That’s only a few bucks off the record high of $1,003.38 set in March 2008 – and no doubt will send more class rings, add-a-bead necklaces and other 14-karat claptrap to the melting pot.

And while many economists pooh-pooh milestones like “Dow 10,000” and “Gold $1,000” as meaningless superstition, your readers do hear about them and wonder, so it helps to figure out your plan of attack in advance.

Taking the serious route, consider an explainer on why gold prices hover so high in bad times – especially when the stock market appears to be backtracking a bit.

“Gold is a hedge,” said David Sowerby, portfolio manager for Loomis, Sayles & Co. in Bloomfield Hills, Mich. “It is one of the last best diversified asset classes compared to stocks. It is distinctly different in returns.”

It’s also a hedge against high inflation, which tends to make markets perform poorly.
“Gold holds its value in a period when stocks can go down,” Sowerby said.

Add in more demand from rebounding overseas economies like China and we’ve got a little 2009 gold rush going on.

Gold prices, like oil, are tracked by various global benchmarks, so be careful when quoting historical data or when preparing charts and graphics. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) runs the Comex gold market; that’s the most commonly cited U.S. market. Check the Web site for historical data, educational info and more.

I think a more interesting business feature would focus on the industrial and commercial uses of the precious metal - beyond jewelry and coins – and how the soaring prices affect businesses in your area. It’s a component in This World Gold Council site – while somewhat optimistically promotional – offers a lot of ideas and background info.

Another angle – use the gold spike (and note that silver and other metals aren’t looking too shabby either these days) to take a look at active and/or obsolete mining operations in your territory. Either from a retrospective or what’s-next development angle, it would make for a great Sunday reader.

If you want to really have some fun – with a grain of salt - check out the tourism angle via sites touting gold-mining vacations, like Gold Fever Prospecting and Arizona Gold Adventures .

Google around, because by no means are all the gold camps out there located in the Wild West or the Yukon – they seem to be popping up throughout the south and on the east coast as well.

In fact, I see a few in Michigan – and, er, I seem to feel a fever coming on!

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Watching September stock moves

Not content to celebrate the U.S. stock market’s modest summer rebound, analysts already are spreading doom.

September, they remind is, historically is the market’s worst-performing month – down an average of 1.4 percent since the great crash of 1929.

Which, by the way, took place at the end of October. The big market crash of 1987 took place that month, too, with Black Monday – October 19 – capping the selloff with the largest one-day U.S. market decline ever.

Despite the past October drama, though, September remains an ominous month for investors. And whether or not major indices do tank or buck the trend and remain buoyant, your readers will expect periodic analysis of what’s going on. The time to prepare is now, before you’re staring at CNBC some autumn afternoon watching those bright-red down arrows.

For a primer on covering market moves, check out this earlier tipsheet. As I mentioned there, I really don’t approve of riling readers with every change of direction the stock market makes. Investing, for most individuals, is a long-term proposition. Professional traders may jump in and out on a daily, hourly or minute-by-minute basis, but people saving for retirement shouldn’t be primed to react at every little blip of the Dow Jones ticker. The results can be tragic.

So don’t feed the fear. But don’t ignore your audience’s concerns, either. The best way to present a balanced approach to market swings – especially the further east you are, since that 4 p.m. close doesn’t leave much time before deadline – is to plan ahead. Start now to line up a stable of market experts who represent a variety of views and approaches – bank economists, CFPs, academics, market historians, traders. Get their after-hours contact info and have it at hand.

Get graphics underway, now, too, if you don’t already have standing Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts in the hopper. That will save valuable time on deadline. Weekly closing values are the usual data points for stock market charts.

Most important, line up your consumer voices in advance. No market story is complete without a retiree, an aggressive investor, a novice or all three to add perspective. Local investment clubs are a good source of knowledgeable average investors. BetterInvesting (the former National Association of Investors Corp.) is a 50-year-plus coalition of local investment groups; it specializes in educational materials and often will hook you up with members in your area.

Try to get permission to attend some meetings and take a look at real portfolios to better understand the way market gyrations and the way we cover them affect the nest eggs – and emotions – of average people.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.

Natural gas rates plunge

Record low overnight temps forced me to dial up the thermostat this morning, bringing back unwelcome memories of last year’s heating bills, which rivaled my monthly mortgage payment.

This year, though, it looks as though we’re in for a break.

Natural gas commodity prices are down 60 percent since the start of the 2009 – about a seven- or eight-year low, according to Kobi Platt, an analyst with the Energy Information Administration at the U.S. Department of Energy in Washington, D.C.

“This is a tremendous swing from last year,” said Platt. “And generally speaking, the lower prices we have seen this year will be passed on to consumers.”

That’ll be welcome news to your readers, so you might want to consider a fall heating outlook soon.

Run it as a personal finance package, contrasting this year’s outlook to last year’s astronomical heating rates. (Keep in mind that the entire natural gas price drop won’t be reflected on residential bills; local utilities have been buying fuel contracts all year at a variety of prices and we don’t yet know what weather or an economic rebound will do to demand.)

You also could stick to a straight business angle by looking at the commercial implications of lower natural gas prices. And they’re more numerous than you might think.

Only about a third of the 20 trillion or so cubic feet of natural gas consumed nationwide each year is used for residential and commercial heath. Another third is used in industrial processes – both as an energy source and as an ingredient in products ranging from fertilizers to plastics. The drop in demand by manufacturers, who’ve reined in production throughout the recession, has a lot to do with the current sky-high inventory levels and low prices.

The final third is used to generate electric power – and with natural gas prices dropping so precipitously, your local utilities might be reducing their reliance on coal even further. That’s another angle to check on, including the implications for electricity rates.

The EIA site’s natural gas portal is a wealth of resources, particularly the narrative monthly short-term energy outlook (sign up for the e-mail feed) and the weekly natural gas storage update – that’s a market mover and a key indicator of future price fluctuations. Don’t worry if you don’t understand this vast and complicated industry – EIA analysts like Platt are available by phone to walk you through the data.

Another angle is retail choice. Some states have allowed competitors to challenge monopoly utilities; here’s an EIA map that shows what’s going on in your area. If you have competitive suppliers, check with consumers to see how that’s working.

Be sure to check with your local utilities themselves and state public service regulators about rates and forecasts, as well as local residential and commercial users.

Come back to Your Daily Tipsheet each morning for advice on where to find sources, background and creative ways to make financial news and trends relevant to your audience.