Even in 2023, the media was reporting that political ad spending for the 2024 elections was expected to shatter records. AdImpact estimates the 2023-2024 election cycle to reach a total of $10.2 billion – 13% higher than the current record set during the 2019-2020 election – while another firm estimates the ad market to reach up to $16 billion. Either way, it’s looking to be a big election cycle for the advertising industry.
As the election cycle hits it into high gear after Labor Day, let’s talk a little about local advertising and some interesting angles to explore in your community.
Down-ballot advertising
Although a lot of advertising growth may partially be tied to the presidential race, a survey reported in The Guardian last year estimates that there may be even more spending this cycle on “down-ballot” races – for instance, positions like district attorney and state judges, which appear further down in the ballot than the typically spotlighted positions of President, Senate, House, and Governor. Just last week, the Harris campaign announced it was directing $24.5 million to organizations focused on electing down-ballot Democratic candidates, an unprecedented amount of money by any presidential candidate.
First, it is important to know that it is very common for voters to not fill out their entire ballots – referred to as “ballot roll-off” – and at least a third don’t. Some voters will only vote for the big national or state-wide races and leave local races untouched, creating very tight margins for local candidates. A multi-state survey conducted by the Sister District Action Network in 2023 found that some of the reasons for ballot roll-off may be due to voters not feeling they know enough about the candidates to decide, not wanting to choose the “wrong” candidate, or not feeling their vote would matter in those races.
This year may be different than most in that regard. A statement from the Harris campaign stated that its decision to invest so much money into other races was due to the belief that this election is about “mobilizing the entire country, in races at every level, to fight for our freedoms and our economic opportunity.”
In fact, some organizations are hoping that down-ballot races and initiatives will actually increase voter turnout this November for the entire ballot.
The impact on local businesses
According to Axios, even though an increasing amount of spending is moving toward digital channels, such as social media, the majority of political ad spending is still allocated toward local broadcast TV – the same local TV that small businesses all around the country rely on to advertise their businesses year-round. The added competition for advertising space is another angle that business journalists can explore this election season.
For example, during the 2020 election, the Arizona Republic spoke with local business owners who were unable to advertise as normal during the final months of the election because they simply couldn’t compete with the prices campaigns were willing to spend. As one owner told the reporter, “I pray that November 3 hurry up and comes… I would love to see competitors’ ads. I’d rather see that.”
